The Democrats’ defeat in 2024 reflected long-term shifts in the electorate, not merely Kamala Harris’s vulnerability or Joe Biden’s decision to seek re-election. If these trends persist through the 2028 presidential election, the long-predicted realignment of America’s political parties will be completed.
The New York Times reported on May 24 that the Republican Party had increased its vote share in three consecutive presidential elections in 1,433 counties, nearly half the national total. The Democratic Party had increased its share in all three elections in only 57 counties. Some 42.7 million voting-age Americans live in counties with consecutive Republican gains, compared with only 8.1 million in counties with consecutive Democratic gains.
In Texas, which Democrats once dreamed of shifting into their column, 124 counties have tilted further right since 2012, while only two counties have tilted further left. In New York, long a blue bastion, 43 of the state’s 62 counties showed Republican gains of 10 percentage points or more between 2012 and 2024, and Democrats’ statewide victory margin shrunk by half.
Demographic patterns influenced these geographical shifts. The clearest divide was on education level: In not a single county in which the Republican Party increased its share of the vote did a majority of adults hold a college degree. Ethnicity also mattered: Sixty-six of the 67 U.S. counties with a majority Hispanic population voted more Republican in 2024 than in 2012. Income was important, too: 95% of U.S. counties trending more Republican had median incomes below the national median.
Earlier in May, the political analytics organization Catalist took a granular look at changes in voting patterns since 2012. Among black voters, support for the Democratic presidential candidate fell from 96% in 2012 to 85% in 2024. For black women, the decline was a relatively modest 7 points, compared with 16 for black men, widening the gender gap from 2 points in 2012 to 11 in 2024.
During this period, Latino support for the Democratic presidential ticket fell from 68% to 54%. Again, sex mattered. While support for the Democratic candidate fell from 71% to 60% for Latina women, it collapsed from 63% to just 47% for Latino men.
Because the median age of Latino eligible voters is lower than for most other segments of the electorate, trends among young Latino adults are especially important—and they’re not comforting for Democrats. Among Latino voters 18 to 29, Democratic support fell by 19 points, from 76% in 2012 to 57% in 2024—by 14 points among young women and 24 points among young men.
Among Asian and Pacific Islander voters, the fastest-growing of any demographic group in the electorate, trends were similar. Between 2012 and 2024, their support for Democratic presidential candidates declined by 13 points, 11 points among women and 16 points among men.
Political ideology is also an important factor in recent elections. A March report from Blue Rose Research documented the rising significance of ideology. While Democrats held most of their ground among liberal nonwhite voters in the past three presidential elections, a significant portion of Hispanic and Asian voters describe themselves as moderate, and the decline in support for Democrats among these segments of the electorate was especially severe—an 11-point decline in support for Democrats among Asian moderates and a 23-point decline among Hispanic moderates.
Some retrospective Blue Rose findings further illuminate the dynamics of the 2024 presidential contest. Asked last October which was more important to them at the time, “preserving America’s institutions” or “delivering change that improves Americans’ lives,” only 18% of those polled chose the former while 78% chose the latter. No wonder Democrats’ appeals to saving democracy fell flat. Of those polled at the time, 53% said that things were going so poorly in America that they favored major changes, even a “shock to the system.” In this respect, Donald Trump has delivered.
Taken together, these three reports point to the declining significance of race and ethnicity for voters’ choices, the rising significance of education levels, and the effect of ideology on voter preferences in a polarized party system.
If Mr. Trump is able to produce change that improves the lives of working-class voters, he may well seal their realignment with an economically nationalist, culturally conservative Republican Party and pass a new Republican majority on to his successor. If he can’t, the future course of American politics will be up for grabs.
